Researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur (IIT Kanpur) are studying the spread of COVID-19 in the country and making predictions based on their mathematical model. The modal is named as 'SUTRA', a mathematics formula, told DD News on Thursday.
IIT Kanpur Professor Manindra Agrawal on being asked about the ongoing situation due to the 2nd wave of deadly Coronavirus said that it will be early to say that second wave has ended. "It will be early to say that it has ended. Southern States especially in Kerala, Karnataka & Tamil Nadu, cases still rising. In these parts, peak of COVID is yet to come but overall there will be decrease in number of new cases in the country," Prof. Agrawal added.
Professor Agrawal shared his mathematical 'SUTRA' for an analysis of lockdown in various states including Uttar Pradesh and Delhi. He analysed the graph of COVID19 cases in Uttar Pradesh state and SUTRA projections from 1st March onwards and shared on his official handle at micro- blogging site Twitter -
Starting a new thread on analysis of lockdown in various states. First, let us examine UP. The plot for UP and SUTRA projections for it from 1st March are below. pic.twitter.com/I2xUPdjijL— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) May 17, 2021
In a series of tweets Professor said, "If the lockdown was not there? We plot two alternative scenarios. Red curve is for contact rate not changing at all, and green for contact rate reducing to 0.4. Peak value is approx 70K in former and 50K in latter".
Professor further suggested that once the number of COVID19 cases lower down Lockdown should be lifted.